If Jose Lopez bats in the middle of the
order, he'll lead the team in RBIs.
The start of baseball season means optimism, excitement and massive amounts of predictions.
Some think the Mariners will surprise everyone and climb out of the AL West cellar they have occupied for four of the last five years. Others, like ESPN's Steve Phillips, think the Mariners will be even more wretched than they were last year.
Everyone seems to already know what the Mariners record will be. So here's my prediction, plus nine more.
To Continue...
Part I, predictions 1-5:
1. Ichiro will get his 200 hits, barely. He's done it in each of his eight seasons with the Mariners, but this year might be his biggest challenge. He'll already miss the first eight games and considering he's dealing with an ulcer, he could miss more. Couple that with the fact that he tends to start slow (.281 BA in April the last three seasons), and Ichiro has some serious work to do.
2. Ichiro will spend some time batting third. It won't happen that often, but we should see it in a handful of games. I've written about the most likely scenarios in which we would see this. Don Wakamatsu has shown that he's not just another old-school manager who does everything by the book. He'll experiment with the lineup every once in a while.
3. Jose Lopez will lead the Mariners in RBIs. He bat second for most of last season and still drove in 89 runs. He could spend more time in the middle of the order this year (he bat sixth last night), which means more RBI opportunities. He's added some muscle in the offseason, which should equal more power. He also drove in three runs on Opening Day, putting him on pace for 486 RBIs.
4. We haven't seen the last of Chris Shelton. After a strong spring, he was edged out by Mike Sweeney for the right-handed first base/designated hitter job and optioned to Tacoma. But let's consider what's going to happen to Sweeney. If he stays healthy, finds some of his old power and shows he can still produce, a contender will probably trade for him at the deadline. If his surgically repaired knees don't hold up and he starts to look like a corpse a la the 2004 John Olerud, the Mariners will let him go. Either scenario opens the door for Shelton.
5. Ken Griffey Jr: .265 BA, 22 HR, 65 RBIs. No, it's not just my man-crush on Griffey that makes me think he'll have a decent year. Consider the last time he was healthy and playing at a ballpark favorable to his swing. It wasn't that long ago. With the Reds in 2007, Griffey hit .277 with 30 homers and 93 RBIs while playing about half of his 144 games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He won't get as many at-bats this year, but he will do some damage at Safeco Field, which was literally built for his swing.
Part II, predictions 6-10 will be posted Wednesday.
Reach Brady Henderson at nextseasonsports@gmail.com
