Now that free agency has had time to play itself out and the combine has helped to better assess potential draftees, writers will more accurately be able to predict their respective teams' draft picks. The last cooperative mock draft occurred before these events, making most of the results irrelevant at this point.As the first few picks come in, it's clear the first round is going to play out much differently than last time.
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Writers range from established newspaper reporters, to trusted bloggers. One thing remains constant between each writer, and that's they are all experts on their respective teams. The mock will be updated on a daily basis.
For a summary of the first round of the last mock draft, click here.
1. Lions – Aaron Curry (LB) Wake Forest
This pick might take people by surprise, considering the glaring need for a real quarterback in Detroit, and the well-documented bellyaching of Lions fans over their current LT, Jeff Backus. However, let me lay a couple of eye-opening tidbits on you folks:
The Lions' starting linebackers are, of this moment:
SLB - Alex Lewis, career special teamer, 6'-0", 228#
MLB - Jordon Dizon, 2nd year guy, lost rookie year to injury, 6'-0", 229#
WLB - Ernie Sims, Pro Bowl potential but pedestrian reality, 5'-11", 220#
That would be an unacceptably small LB corps for a Big Ten school, let alone a NFL team. The Lions allowed 32.3 points per game last year, by far the worst in the NFL. The Lions allowed 2,754 yards rushing to opponents last year, on 536 carries--that's an average of 5.1 ypc. The Lions were passed against fewer times than any team in the NFL, yet allowed the 27th most yardage. Opposing passers' average QB rating was 110.9. No, that's not a typo, one hundred and ten point nine.
The defense was beyond atrocious last year, it was historically bad. Statistically speaking, the defense was dead last in nearly every category. On top of that, the Lions released (or didn't re-signed) starting MLB Paris Lenon, and starting SLB Ryan Nece. So, basically, the LB position was a lethal weakness in 2008 and it is significantly worse now. Curry's incredible size (6'-2", 254#), speed (4.56) and intelligence could make him the best Lion on the defensive side of the ball from day one. Besides desperately needing Curry's production, the Lions' defense has even greater need of a leader. Ernie Sims plays with lots of passion, but he doesn't have the gift of inspiring other men to play like he does. Curry could immediately fill that role.
Finally, Schwartz has been saying all along that he doesn't want "the right position", he wants "the right person": a good kid, a hard worker, someone who's both athletically elite and a remarkable individual--and he's pointed at Megatron as the perfect example of that. Between his insightful blogging, his committment to supporting his family, and his jaw-dropping skill set, I really think that Curry is "the right person". Finally, Curry is much less likely than Matt Stafford to be unreasonable about his contract demands--with Tom Condon representing him, Stafford will almost certianly want to sign after the draft for enormous cash--but Curry should accept a smaller contract, before the Lions go on the clock.
The Lions could certainly use almost any player on the board, but Curry is a player of rare physical ability and high character, at a position of desperate need. For even more longwided analysis, explanation, and rationalization, be sure to check out my blog.
Ty is the Founder, President, CEO, Chairman of the Board, Editor-in-Chief, Senior Writer, and Flamekeeper at The Lions in Winter.
2. Rams – Jason Smith (OT) Baylor
The Rams have the number two pick in the 2009 NFL draft, which can be quite costly. The Rams under Steve Spagnuolo are moving quickly in the direction they wish to go. In 2008 character was a strong issue for Billy Devaney. I believe character as well as Spagnuolo wanting bigger, stronger NFC East type players will be a large factor in this year’s draft. Previously I thought Michael Crabtree would be a great pick for the Rams, and with Torry Holt asking for his exit from the Rams that pick would still make sense. However since putting up remarkable numbers in 2008; 93 catches for 1135 yards and 18 touchdowns Crabtree is now having size, speed, and injury issues. These issues make him a big risk at #2, a risk the Rams probably will not be willing to take.
Most teams do not rebuild a franchise by drafting a WR. This week a league source stated, the Rams are “trying like hell” to trade Orlando Pace. With that being said we now believe the Rams will change course and select Jason Smith, OT from Baylor. Smith is 6-5, 305 and has tremendous footwork having previously been a TE. The tackle position right now is a crap shoot; Smith has had a knee injury and previous played TE so he is not as experienced as some. Andre Smith has character issues and appears to slow to play left tackle. Eugene Monroe has also had knee problems.
That leaves Michael Oher the main character of the best-selling book by Michael Lewis titled The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game. The list of issues for Oher may be many but on field it appears he may be a better Guard prospect. So this week we will select Jason Smith for the St. Louis Rams. Coming up fast Aaron Curry?
Stlvinnie is the webmaster for St. Louis Rams Fan and the lead blogger at Ramblin Fan.
3. Eugene Monroe (OT) Virginia
Kent Babb: With the Chiefs' top target, Aaron Curry, off the board, Kansas City likely would trade its No. 3 pick to try to move down, perhaps pick up a pass rusher and an additional draft pick. But for the sake of discussion, the Chiefs would select Virginia's Monroe, who played alongside current Chiefs tackle Branden Albert, one of Kansas City's first-round picks last year, for the Cavaliers. In fact, it was Monroe whose talent bumped Albert to playing guard for Virginia. One of those first-round tackles, more likely at least beginning with Monroe, would play on the right side. It's a steep price for a right tackle, but it also would solidify the Chiefs' edges for upward of the next decade - and protect newly acquired quarterback Matt Cassel.
Kent Babb is a Kansas City Star reporter and blogs at Red Zone.
4. Michael Crabtree (WR) Texas Tech
After the Rams took who most pundits agree to be the top offensive tackle, Jason Smith, the Seahawks draft who most agree to be the second highest ranked player on the board, next to Aaron Curry, with WR Michael Crabtree. After making moves to shore up the receiving corps and the hole at defensive tackle in free agency, GM Tim Ruskell reached his status quo for the 2008 offseason. That is, he aligned the team adequately to take the best player available with the no. 4 selection.
Draft experts who don’t follow the Seahawks might be perplexed by the selection after the Seahawks signed WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as their new no. 1 receiver. But, at 32 this September, and an aging Deion Branch, 29, Crabtree should help the Seahawks build for the future at a position that hasn’t made it to the pro bowl in nearly 20 years. With the selection, the Seahawks suddenly have the best four wideout set in the league, and a passing game to be feared. Consequently, the running game becomes more potent as defenses focus in on covering the most talented wide receiver corps in Seahawks history. In his rookie season, Crabtree would also be a phenomenal safety cushion in the likely scenario one of the top three wide receivers goes down with an injury.
Aaron Weinberg publishes Next Season Sports
5. Browns - Malcolm Jenkins (DB) Ohio State
Cleveland has needs aplenty, and I would've taken Curry or Crabtree here in a heartbeat. I'm not thrilled about the remaining options for this high-stakes pick. This draft seems pretty deep but not front-loaded with difference-makers near the top. Maybe some team jonesing for a quarterback would trade up here, but I'm not banking on it. The past decade's Browns have been the first team to take a QB, DE, DT, RB, C, TE, WR, OT, and even long snapper in their respective drafts. This year, the linebacking needs are legion, but I'm not sold on Orapko, Brown, or the USC trio quite this high. Orapko, the Texas tweener, might help mount a pass rush, but his injury history scares me. So I'll settle for the nation's best defensive back (and no, I am not and have never been a Buckeye fan) and debate later whether he'll be a cornerstone cover guy or a slick safety. Truth is, the Browns need both.
Ace Davis has published Ace Davis' Cleveland Browns Weblog, the longest-running blog devoted to the Browns, since 2002.
6. Bengals – Michael Oher (OT) Mississippi
The thoughts of the Bengals targeting a running back (Wells, Moreno) or a receiver (Crabtree, Maclin) should be put to rest with the signing of Cedric Benson and Laveranues Coles. While I still feel that Oher is a great pick and has the potential to be a great starting left tackle for years to come, there are questions about whether he is smart enough to pick up the difficult offensive schemes in the NFL.
I am banking that he can and a good offensive lineman with this pick gives Palmer the protection he needs and makes the Cincinnati offense one of the best in the league again. I may have still preferred Monroe, but in this draft he is already taken.
Mickey Mentzer owns http://whodeyfans.com/ and has been running the site for the last 3 years. The writers from whodeyfans know their football and like to wrap their posts in humor. (which is necessary being a bengals fan)
7. Raiders – Brian Orakpo (DE) Texas
The Oakland Raiders take Brian Orakpo out of Texas. At 6"3 and 263 lbs, Orakpo is capable of playing both defensive end or at linebacker. As JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden have laid the foundation for the Raiders offensive future, Orakpo, as flexible as he is, provides a young jolt to the front 4.
William Wong blogs for the Oakland-Raider, the Silver & Black's premiere source for rumors, news, and commentary.
8. Jaguars - Jeremy Maclin (WR) Missouri
If this was the case, I would be on the phones furiously right now. Outside of Monroe, there isn't a player in the draft that would be worth the Jaguars shelling out Top 10 money for a 2nd year in a row.
I'm not convinced BJ Raji can be effective in a 4-3, not to mention his character issues and consistently being labeled as an "Underachiever." I think whoever ends up with him is getting Albert Haynesworth 2.0, aka a guy who is dominant when the light goes off but only goes off when playing for a contract.
Andre Smith's recent egg laying at his Pro Day plus the Jags signing Tra Thomas makes me not pull the trigger on him.
I took a long look at Matt Stafford. I remember in 2004 the Jaguars being "set" at QB with Byron Leftwich and passing on Ben Roethlisberger to draft Reggie Williams. Leftwich and Williams are both street free agents now and Roethlisberger is perhaps the most clutch QB in the game. That's also the reason I decided not to go with Stafford. He has all the tools, but what has he done with them? The only big game I remember Georgia winning with him was in 2007 vs UF and that was Knowshown Moreno running through the Gators' D.
So it came down to a choice between Percy Harvin and Maclin. I just like Maclin better. He offers a legit threat to take it for 6 on every punt return along with a bevy of options on offense. He doesn't have Harvin's injury history as well.
However, if this situation occurs in the real draft, I gurantee it will either be the Jets, Vikings, or Eagles picking here instead.
Jonathan Loesche, columnist for www.BigCatCountry.com
9. Packers – B.J. Raji (DT) Boston College
The Packers had many injuries on the defensive line in 2008 and it will be a focus in the 2009 draft. If Raji falls to the 9th selection, Ted Thompson will probably have to change his draft plans and select him. It also helps that former Packers Offensive Coordinator was Raji's coach at BC and will surely fill in Thompson and Mike McCarthy.
However, Packer fans will be weary of a first round defensive tackle selection. 2007 first round pick Justin Harrell has been a major bust so far in Green Bay.
Rick Stratton is the editor of www.packerbackerblog.com
10. 49ers - Everette Brown (OLB) Florida State
The 49ers have various needs this offseason, but unlike what some people are predicting, a first round QB is not one of those needs. The 49ers have a pair of outside linebackers, one of whom turned in a very solid season in 2008. Parys Haralson seems to have a legitimate future going forward as a pass rushing outside linebacker. Manny Lawson is an athletic freak, but he seems less inclined to rush the passer or more likely to be a guy in coverage and in a read position.
Although Everette Brown didn't have a ton of experience (only one season as a fulltime starter), he still racked up 23 sacks for his 3-year career. This pick is a really tough one for the 49ers because it seems like they're too high for guys like Oher, but they're too low for a BJ Raji. Andre Smith is plummeting and seems like too much of a headcase. If the first 9 picks go in the above order, I think the 49ers will battle themselves in trying to decide between Michael Oher and Everette Brown. What wouldn't surprise me is if the 49ers tried to move up from the second round into the late first round to grab the right tackle they need. They've shown no qualms about making those kinds of moves, so we'll see if they do so again.
David Fucillo, lead writer and editor of Niners Nation
11. Bills - Aaron Maybin (DE) Penn State
With Everette Brown sadly off the board, the Bills will go with the next best pass rusher in the draft. Having produced a total of just 50 sacks over the past two seasons, the Bills are desperate for a pass rusher. With an aging veteran that has lost a step (Aaron Schobel) and a couple of aging players with limited pass rush skills (Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay), to be kind, the team needs an infusion of talent and youth. Maybin is a talented edge rusher with plenty of potential to become a great player in the NFL.
Possessing one of the quickest first steps in the draft and a nice frame to add additional weight as he benefits from an NFL program, Maybin has a bright future. The Bills need an immediate impact out of a pass rusher, which Maybin could provide without having to worry about being a three down player quite yet. The Bills could look for more pass rush help later in the draft, in addition to this pick. Clay Matthews Jr. is also an intriguing option at this point in the draft.
Jason Fritz is one of the authors at Buffalo Rumblings, www.buffalorumblings.com.
12. Broncos - Matt Stafford, QB (Georgia)
Things have been blown to hell in Bronocoland over the past couple of weeks. Jay Cutler is as good as gone. The rift between the crybaby QB and the new idiot head coach has grown too big. A team can deal with a malcontent wideout or cornerback, but not someone who controls 100% of the plays on one side of the field.
Without Cutler, Denver is a pretty bad football team. They've got a defense that finished at or near the bottom of the league in every important stat and, Brian Dawkins aside, hasn't improved at all this offseason. They've got no kicking game, an offense that will be learning a new system with a new QB, a star wideout that will likely be suspended for the first half of the season and a TE who, being good buddies with Cutler, is also now disgruntled.
The two QB's on Denver's roster other than Cutler are Chris Simms and Darrell Hackney. Neither of those guys is exactly a starting caliber QB and none of the FA's available are exactly appealing starters either. Jeff Garcia is the best of the bunch, but he's pushing 40. No, Denver is a very young team in rebuild mode. Might as well toss a rook out there.
Stafford has the tools to be a franchise-type guy and is somehow still around at 12. This is a no-brainer choice.
“Hercules Rockefeller” is the sole-proprietor of Orange Bucksnorts.
13. Washington Redskins – Andre Smith (OT) Alabama
Hey, why not? Sure, he showed up for the combine unprepared, left early, showed up for his pro day out of shape and shirtless, and seems to have been deliberately driving down his draft stock. All those things are negatives, no doubt.
But this is the same guy who was projected as high as first overall after his in-game performance, and I’m going to believe the actual game production instead of the offseason disasters. He’s also claimed to look up to current OT Chris Samuels, another Alabama product, and hopefully Samuels can help iron out his rough edges. Onfield, he can compete for the starting right tackle spot with incumbents Jon Jansen and Stephon Heyer. At thirteen overall, Smith looks to me like a manageable risk at a need position.
Matt Terl writes the Official Blog of the Washington Redskins.
14. Saints - Brian Cushing (OLB) USC
The first go round Cushing was already off the draft board by the the time I got to pick for the Saints at #14. Now I can't believe Cushing is still on the board. He was a top performer in, like, every Combine event. I definitely expected to see some shuffling around after the Combine but Cushing's effort should have solidified him in the top ten. And so I can't pass picking him up and I don't think the Saints would either.
Dave Cariello writes for Canal Street Chronicles
15. Texans – Clay Matthews Jr. (OLB) USC
This is a fairly easy choice considering who's left on the board. The Texans need an upgrade at the SAM linebacker, and Clay Matthews fits the bill. I think he's a superior LB prospect to Brian Cushing in almost every way. Matthews can put his hand down and rush the passer. He's been a terrific special teams player. He quickly and effectively changes direction during the play. All that said, the thing I like most about him is that he's worked hard for everything he's gotten. He was never a blue chip talent - he walked on at USC and made himself into what he is. He's got a nasty on-field demeanor, and an elite work ethic.
One eye-popping statistic that has recently come to light - he ran the first 10 yards of his 40-yard dash in 1.49 seconds, better than nine of the cornerbacks at the Combine, according to National Football Post. That shows that he'll have great closing speed and incredible burst when he is looking to locate the ball. Unlike Cushing, he's also been durable, but that could be more because he didn't regularly start until his senior season.
Obviously, he has the bloodlines as well, but that has exactly zero bearing on my selection. This guy isn't who he is because of his father Clay and his uncle Bruce. He's self-made, and I think he'd be a perfect fit for Houston. Trouble is - he hasn't even had his pro day yet and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's off the board when the actual NFL Draft comes around.
Chris Watkins is the Owner & Editor of HoustonDiehards.com
16. Chargers – Rey Maualuga (LB) USC
Rey Maualuga's name is being linked the to San Diego Chargers from multiple sources, and for good reason; the Chargers' defense proved vulnerable last year, especially up the middle. The loss of an impact player of Shawne Merriman's caliber certainly didn't help matters, but even by reaching into the depth chart the Chargers were never able to fully compensate for Merriman's loss, and they lacked consistent intensity all season long. Maualuga is widely regarded as the NFL Draft's top middle linebacker prospect and a big reason why is that 'Sting Rey' is one of the most brutal tacklers in all of football. Even though the Chargers have good depth at linebacker, it would be foolish to think that a 3-4 defense can have too many good linebackers. Maualuga could be the second coming of Junior Seau and San Diego-area holds holds Mr. Seau in high regard.
Robert Zapeda writes for Bolt Hype, the original Chargers blog.
17. Jets - Beanie Wells (RB) Ohio State
With a lead running back that's now in his thirties, the Jets need to consider their long-term depth at the position, especially with a coach who is committed to running the ball. With Wells available at this point in the draft, it was him or Mark Sanchez, and I think the Jets would feel more comfortable with what they have in-house over Sanchez's one year of starting experience. Although Wells has had nagging injuries over the years, he's been a tough player that the team can use between the tackles.
Brian Basset founded www.thejetsblog.com in 2004.
18. Bears - Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR) Maryland
With the recent issues that the Bears offensive line have faced in the post month, I am hesitant to not draft a linemen. However, rarely this far down in the draft do you have the opportunity to get a play maker the caliber of Heyward-Bey. Pairing him up with Devin Hester and his speed alone would give the Bears one of the fastest receiver combos in the league. Heyward-Bey is a go-getter in terms of catching the ball. He doesn't wait for the ball to drop to him, he maneuvers and will out jump the majority of corner backs for the ball.
Adam F. Tracey has run Windy City Gridiron since 2005.
Reach Aaron Weinberg at nextseasonsports@gmail.com
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